Ryan Independent

Commentary on global, federal, state and local issues from Brisbane’s western suburbs

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“Some things are more important than others”

August 15th, 2010 · Posts

During this election a number of crucial national challenges have been given short shrift.  Some (health, education) have been treated with extraordinary shallowness where thoroughgoing reform should have been on the agenda. Others, such as overcoming indigenous disadvantage or Australia’s proper role in Afghanistan, have appeared minimally or not at all.  An election hijacked by small-target politics and characterised by big-issue avoidance isn’t something we can afford, but it is exactly what the big parties have given us.  The greatest failure of Labor and the Coalition in this 2010 election, however, is their abandonment of serious and coherent policies on climate change.

AP Photo

Xinhua/AFP Photo

With dreadful irony, this head-in-the-sand election campaign has coincided with two of the most significant climate-related catastrophes of recent times: the unprecedented Russian heatwave (thousands of additional deaths, the largest ever one-day exodus from Moscow airport, nuclear facilities threatened by raging bush-fires, loss of one-quarter of the country’s crops leading to a spike in the global wheat price), and the floods in Pakistan making a million people homeless, causing hunger and disease, and now affecting as many people as Australia’s entire population.  We DO NOT KNOW if these events have occurred as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but we DO KNOW that each of the three months since April has been the hottest combined land and sea temperature ever recorded globally, and July the second hottest. We ALSO KNOW that such extreme weather events have been predicted to increase in severity and frequency by the IPCC.

Back to the Ryan electorate.  Ryan Independent urges a vote this coming Saturday for Greens candidate Sandra Bayley, who has many ideas on health, education and other issues, but has clearly stated that “Some things are more important than others”, and number one is to face up to, and deal seriously with climate change. This should be a call taken up across the political spectrum…. even the father of liberal conservatism, Edmund Burke, is quoted as stating that:

“The public interest requires doing today those things that men of intelligence and good will wish, five or ten years hence, had been done.”

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Which Ryan candidates bother showing up? Forum scorecard

August 12th, 2010 · Posts

Candidates at Federal Elections are invited to public forums and other events run by community organisations to help voters better understand their views, policies and behaviour. To consistently skip, decline or just ignore these events without a compelling reason is rude at best, and certainly contrary to the democratic spirit. I’d go further and say it’s rather insulting to the electorate.

The Scorecard:

In this election so far, Ex-LNP Independent Michael Johnson has partially mended his former absentee ways (he ducked several forums in 2007), but we missed him at the Higher Education Forum held at his alma mater UQ this week, and he declined to take part in the public transport challenge (one day of campaigning using only public transport). Steven Miles, for the ALP has been to most, and the invisible family First candidate Allan Vincent cannot really be judged because he may not have received invitations to the earlier events. Sandra Bayley of the Greens has participated in every public event to which all candidates have been invited. Jane Prentice (LNP) has by far the poorest record of the serious candidates, shunning even the Inner West Chamber of Commerce forum, which ought to be home turf to a conservative.   Voters might like to consider what these patterns say about how committed our intending MPs are to listening to, and working with, voters in the Ryan electorate, and how seriously they take the democratic process.

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Geraldine Doogue discusses the Greens on Saturday Extra

August 7th, 2010 · Posts

Thoughtful piece on the Greens in this election – their philosophy and prospects – with guests Michael Gawenda and local (UQ) economist John Quiggin.

Listen here on the ABC Radio National site

or directly here:

sea_20100807_0730.mp3

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Ryan features on ABC Breakfast

August 5th, 2010 · Posts

A pretty fair piece about the Ryan campaign by Cathy Van Extel on ABC Radio National’s Breakfast program this morning.

Go to the ABC and listen to it here

or directly from this site:  bst_20100805_0748.mp3

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Campaign materials speak volumes

August 4th, 2010 · Posts

The materials and methods of a campaign reflect a lot about the thinking and approach of parties and candidates.  In Ryan this week the Labor Party Machine has parked a somewhat retro-appearing anti-Work Choices truck and a bored looking driver at the end of the Western Freeway (traditional Michael Johnson waving spot).  Big, expensive, impersonal, missing the point.

Michael Johnson, devoid of his former party affiliation, is forced to run on his nine-year parliamentary and electorate record.  His flyer, unfortunately, gives us some fairly slim pickings, and for a one-time-Foreign Minister-wannabee

“…initiated and sponsored the Thomas the Tank Engine Family Fun Day”

suggests that the record isn’t all it could be.

But of the items I’ve seen or received this week, Ryan Independent is most profoundly disappointed by this communication from LNP candidate Jane Prentice. Chatting with her at the Indigo Fair on Saturday I found her positive and pleasant as we discussed the idea of a establishing a Community Garden adjacent to the Greenhill Reservoir on Russell Terrace on the Indooroopilly/Chapel Hill boundary.

Then yesterday I receive, with her name and photo as endorsement, this “Secure our borders” flyer, replete with gunboat picture, pledging a return to Mr. Howard’s approach to asylum-seekers.  This is a direct appeal to the electorate’s least sympathetic, most fearful side – and it is the product of the big party fear-mongering competition of recent months.  Jane Prentice has now signed on.  This is the  issue that apparently warrants an expensive,  special, single issue mail-out, and by implication now rates as the most significant threat facing Ryan and Australia. Not the challenge of ensuring we have a liveable planet, or of creating an economy that will serve our grand-children, or of building proper transport transport infrastructure in our region. Not that of strengthening our schools, hospitals and universities, or of a rapid move to a smart energy future. No, Ryan, according to Jane Prentice, it’s the boats.

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Received your deceptive (party) postal vote application form yet?

July 19th, 2010 · Posts

It’s that time again. Labor Senator Claire Moore has sent me, courtesy of her taxpayer-funded electoral allowance, a deceptively non-partisan appearing form to request a postal vote…. but in reality a camouflaged party information gathering tool that is open to abuse.

The word “Labor” appears nowhere. Everything about the form looks “official” .. i.e. “neutral”.  If I chose to follow the instructions, I would return it to an anonymous P.O. Box, or I might call the “Postal Vote Hotline”.  Nothing would suggest that I would be giving my full personal and contact information, and that of a witness, to the Labor Party, because the P.O. Box is theirs – not the Australian Electoral Commission’s.  The Libs do the same, of course. This shameless and deceptive practice carried out by both big parties allows them to:

a) collect personal information to augment their databases

b) obtain telephone numbers and e-mail addresss they would very likely not otherwise gain access to (the “do not call” register doesn’t apply to parties and phone numbers are not part of the electoral roll), and

c) POTENTIALLY, “lose”,  ”mislay”, “forget” , delay or otherwise interfere with the passing on of that information to the AEC if they are of the view you won’t be voting for them.

Even Joe Ludwig, Labor’s Special Minister of State, has said the forms should be returned directly to the AEC.

Just for fun I called the “hotline” and the phone was answered by a staffer at Senator Moore’s office.  I asked several questions about this practice, and received factually accurate but slightly cagey responses.  No assurance that information isn’t transferred from the forms, for example.  And a claim that they couldn’t supply a Reply Paid envelope that goes directly to the AEC  ”because this wasn’t permitted”.  Not true.  Australia Post allows any address to be used:

“A Reply Paid response must specify the name or business name of the Reply Paid customer and a valid address of:
• the customer, or
• an authorised agent of the customer, or
• any other person who has provided written consent.”

Surely the Labor Party has simply forgotten to ask the AEC for that consent… or am I too cynical ?

The Greens have a clear position. This year Bob Brown stated in Parliament that “The Greens believe there are no grounds from an administrative or participatory democracy perspective for postal vote applications supplied by parliamentarians to be returned to parliamentary offices prior to being forwarded to the AEC.” Ryan Independent agrees. If you do too, call Ryan (and Queensland) Labor’s phony “Postal Voting Information Hotline” – 3252 7934 and let them know, or the equivalent LNP number  - I’ve not received their pitch yet. But if you want a postal vote, I’d suggest you get your own AEC form, and return it directly to them … it’s all explained here.   You have until 6pm Thursday 19 August 2010, and can mail it, FAX it, or scan and e-mail it.

STOP PRESS: LNP’s version from Jane Prentice arrived.  Less egregious than Labor’s. The LNP origins are acknowledged, and the hotline is accompanied by the LNP web address:

When I called the advertised number, though, and asked the staffer (very polite lady) about what happened to the information on the form, she acknowledged that it was transferred to an LNP-controlled database, though with a tag that meant  ”it would be deleted” after being passed on to the AEC.  What assurance was there about this?  Hmmm. They’ll get back to me.  Why was the voter not given an envelope addressed to the AEC?  ”Because we assume the voter will want to receive a “how-to-vote” card from us” was the staffer’s response.   Then why wasn’t this declared on the form? Hmmmm. They’ll get back to me.  I shall report back the response when I receive it.

AUGUST 4th UPDATE: Still no word from the LNP.  Michael Johnson’s version, has arrived, also addressed back to his campaign, but at least I can give him credit for not trying to disguise his.  Michael is anything but shy:

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Leaders and Followers

July 13th, 2010 · Posts

What a contrast. Just as the Cabinet is set to endorse the abandonment of a carbon price as the mainstay of their policy and adopt instead some worthy but all too modest measures on household and community carbon emissions, the citizen group Beyond Zero Emissions launches (tomorrow) a bold action plan to completely realign Australia’s energy system and reduce emissions to zero, for an estimated cost of 3% of GDP over 10 years. The irony is that the more Governments “listen” to citizens through the lowest common denominator of focus groups and party polling, the deafer their ears seem to be to the most progressive ideas of civic society.  Does Government lead or simply follow?

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Julia Gillard’s sense of climate urgency dissipates

July 8th, 2010 · Posts

Our new Prime Minister Julia Gillard seems to have a great sense of urgency when it comes to defusing the electoral hazards she perceives in Labor’s recent policies on the mining tax, the boats, and (shortly) climate change.

Even though the Reserve Bank’s Warrick McKibbin is pointing out that industry wants a carbon price, she has rejected an interim carbon tax and is postponing action on a CPRS and seems set to come up instead with a handful of direct measures, potentially of some merit in themselves but absolutely not up to the task of seriously denting carbon emissions.

This prevarication should be seen for what it is – political timidity and a lack of conviction.  How else can it be explained when contrasted with the following public statements she made between 2006 and 2009?

“You’re right to say the clock is ticking on this issue facing our planet and facing this nation.  And we continue to be very clear with the Australian people that we have to act. All the Government has ever sought to do is to act effectively and decisively on climate change, because that’s in the interests of this nation. It’s in the interests of this nation now; it’s in the interests of this nation in the future. We are a hot, dry place that will be hit hard and early by climate change. When you talk to Australians they are talking about how our climate is changing and they want to see real action on climate change.”

Julia Gillard, 2 December 2009.

“This is the moment for the world to come together and jointly deal with the challenge of climate change, developed and developing nations working together.”

Julia Gillard 17 December 2009.

“But what we’ve always said to the Australian community is this nation needed to grapple with climate change… (unlike) the Liberal government that on one day was in climate change denial, on another day was coming up with half baked policies, but never had a plan to deal with climate change over 5, 10, 15, 20 years into the future.”

Julia Gillard,  02 June 2008.

“He (Kevin Rudd) talked about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s description of climate change as a ‘post-partisan’ political problem, one that is just too important to be used as a political football. And he quoted the California Governor as follows:

… we are not waiting for politics. We are not waiting for our problems to get worse. We are not waiting for the federal government. We are not waiting – period. Because, the future does not wait.

And while the Terminator is not Australian and hopefully is not likely to fall naked out of our skies on to our land, his words summed up how Australians felt when they voted last year.”

Julia Gillard, 28 May 2008.

“Tackling climate change and building a more environmentally sustainable base for Australian industry and the Australian economy are among the great challenges facing the nation.”

Julia Gillard, 01 July 2006.

In its report, released today, the task group says carbon trading should start in 2012.

However, deputy opposition leader Julia Gillard said today the government had received reports urging action as early as 1999, but had lacked the political will to act because it did not believe climate change was a problem.

She said back then the government had been “full of sceptics and consequently full of inaction and really nothing has changed about that”.

“This is a government that has been so inactive on climate change that anything it does now is explained by this year’s election rather than a change of heart,” Ms Gillard told reporters in Sydney.

Julia Gillard, 06 Jan 2007,  AAP General News (Australia).

Gillard promises year of action as Australia warms up

Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the report confirmed an urgent need to act on climate change, and she promised the federal government would increase household water and energy saving measures this year.

“We’ve ratified Kyoto, we provided leadership at the Bali summit and this year we will work on our national emissions-trading scheme and of course increase the uptake of renewable energy.

“We’ll also be working in partnership with households to help households save water and to save energy and to make better use of solar energy.

“These are important initiatives to deal with climate change and today’s statement just reconfirms how urgent it is to act.”

Julia Gillard, 3 January 2008, AAP General News (Australia).

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Are you in the Ryan Electorate for the 2010 election? Check this interactive map:

June 20th, 2010 · Posts

Ryan’s boundaries have changed since the last election.  Welcome to Ryan if you’re in one of the new parts (Ferny Grove, Keperra, Mitchellton, Enoggera, Upper Kedron, Grovely, parts of Gaythorne, Bardon and Ashgrove). The Australian Electoral Commission’s website has a box for entering your locality, but sometimes this can straddle two electorates. There’s no interactive map, so I’ve made one. You can check if you are in the Ryan electorate by dragging and zooming to your home.  You can always check, of course, by calling the AEC on 13 23 26

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Oil, oil, everywhere?

June 18th, 2010 · Posts

Three images of oil that speak for themselves. The first, courtesy of Paul Rademacher’s site, shows the extent of the BP oil spill in relation to S.E. Queensland.  It completely dwarfs not just the electorate of Ryan, but would extend from Noosa to Ballina on the NSW coast, and from Stanthorpe in the south-west to a point far out at sea beyond Moreton Island.  Click the map to visit his site and enjoy spilling the oil on the locality of your choice.

The next two images come from a paper in Energy Policy by Steve Sorrell, Richard Miller, Roger Bentley and Jamie Spears – an admirably readable and somewhat disturbing paper entitled “Oil futures: a comparison of global supply forecasts”. (Energy Policy 38, 2010, 4990-5003)

The first illustrates (using the example of the UK North Sea sector) how fields brought into production later are smaller and depleted faster (each coloured band represents the volume of the field (vertical axis) and its lifetime (horizontal axis):

In the second, the authors plot (using a simple bell-shaped model) dates for ‘peak oil’ using a wide range of estimates of URR (Ultimately Recoverable Resources).  They point out that:

“Delaying  the peak by 1 year requires addition of 80 Gb (giga-barrels) to the global URR,which is two and half times greater than global production in 2007 and more than five times greater than global discoveries.”

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